Poland’s Pre-Election Dynamics
The Polish parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place on October 15, 2023, amid intense polarization and the rise of new political forces.
What trends are changing the electorate? How significant will be the impact of inflation? Will Law and Justice (PiS) stay in power? Will it have to govern as part of a coalition? These are the questions I am trying to answer here.
As Poland gears up for the forthcoming parliamentary elections, fluctuating support bases and the emergence of newer political entities are dictating the dynamics of the political landscape. There is strong polarization, largely between the main forces, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and the opposition group Civic Platform (PO), led by Donald Tusk. The existing major parties are also grappling with changes in voter preferences and the rise of alternatives like the Confederation, which are offering fresh perspectives and seemingly gaining traction. Recent polls highlight a volatile scenario with PiS experiencing fluctuating support levels, hovering at around 35%.
The Difficulties Experienced by the Civic Platform
The Civic Platform (PO) still has a substantial deficit in the polls. Even after the PiS's eight-year reign marked by nearly 100 billion in EU sanctions caused by rule of law disputes, the Civic Platform (PO) constantly lags behind by an average of 7%.